Our Research Output
List of Publications & Presentations by Members of the «Trade Packages» Team
Critical Minerals in EU Trade Discourse: Navigating a Trilemma in Times of Geopolitical Competition
Critical minerals (CMs) have become a strategic priority for the European Union (EU) amid the green and digital transitions. These resources – including lithium, cobalt, rare earths and nickel – are essential for clean energy technologies, defence systems and electronics. Yet, their processing and refining are highly concentrated in a few countries, leaving the EU especially vulnerable to supply disruptions and fuelling geopolitical tensions.
Recent shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have further exposed the fragility of supply chains. At the same time, extracting and trading CMs pose severe environmental and social challenges, from high carbon footprints to local community impacts. EU trade policy is therefore confronted with a trilemma: how to safeguard economic competitiveness, ensure environmental sustainability and enhance security of supply.
This policy brief summarises research tracing how the European Commission’s trade discourse on CMs has evolved to address the trilemma (Laurens, 2025). Initially, communications focused narrowly on free trade and market access for raw materials. Gradually, sustainability and security considerations entered the narrative. Most recently, the EU has embraced a hybrid framing, simultaneously highlighting economic, environmental and security objectives in its trade discourse on CMs. Although this hybrid discursive approach can help build broader support for CM policies and agreements by appealing to diverse stakeholders, it also demands careful policy design to minimise trade-offs and deliver on its promises. Without credible implementation and genuine integration of economic, environmental and security objectives, hybrid framing risks remaining largely rhetorical and failing to steer policy in practice.
Framing Critical Minerals: Hybridising Economic, Environmental, and Security Objectives in EU Trade Discourse
Critical minerals have become a central focus of European Union trade discourse at the intersection of global sustainability goals, economic competitiveness concerns, and growing supply-chain vulnerabilities.
Drawing on discursive institutionalism and the literature on framing, this paper uses the concept of “framing hybridisation” to describe how the European Union’s trade discourse on critical minerals has evolved in response to external shocks, internal agency shifts, and the engagement of key stakeholders. The findings, based on co-occurrence analysis and time-series discourse mapping of DG Trade communications between 1989 and 2025, reveal a three-phase framing hybridisation process, in which discourse grows in complexity through the strategic selection of additional frames. Initially, critical minerals were framed primarily through an economic lens, with emphasis on liberalisation and competitiveness. In a second phase, the environmental frame gained prominence, emphasising concerns over mining practices and the role of critical minerals in the green transition. More recently, a security frame has surged, focused on reducing strategic dependencies and enhancing supply-chain resilience. Since 2020, these three frames have become increasingly hybridised, reflecting a broader transformation in the European Union’s approach to trade policy in response to global uncertainty.
Tightening or Loosening? The Effects of Uncertainty on the Design of Preferential Trade Agreements
To mitigate uncertainty, it is often assumed that governments negotiate ample flexibility provisions when entering new international treaties. Yet, the case of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) suggests that governments prioritize the more stringent commitments when faced with uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate the effects of uncertainty spikes occurring during negotiations on the design of 251 bilateral PTAs. Our theory proposes that sharp increases in uncertainty make governments more prone to signing deeper PTAs to emphasize their commitment to liberalization. In doing so, governments cater to firms’ demands for institutions protecting investment, upholding intellectual property rights, and promoting regulatory harmonization. We find robust evidence that PTAs are deeper when the contracting parties are faced with uncertainty spikes during negotiations. However, we do not find equally consistent evidence that countries also make PTAs more flexible. While much of the rational-design literature has focused on flexibility as a tool to cope with uncertainty, our findings suggest that countries rather tend to tighten their international commitments in turbulent times.
The Impact of Trade Promotion Organizations on Exports: Evidence From the COVID-19 Pandemic
This paper examines the impact of Trade Promotion Organizations (TPOs) on exports during the COVID-19 pandemic using a World Bank survey. Results suggest that increased TPO budgets significantly boosted exports during downturns but had no effect during the recovery phase. Interestingly, e-commerce programs adopted by TPOs negatively affected exports during downturns as they diverted resources away from productive support, especially for sectors not intensive in online trade. These findings suggest that counter-cyclical TPO budgets may enhance trade resilience during similar global shocks.
Inclusive Exports and Economic Growth
Building on Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007), we provide a methodology to estimate the degree of inclusiveness of an export product along three economic dimensions: income equality, gender equality and formality in the labour market. Using this measure of product inclusiveness, we construct a measure of a country’s export bundle inclusiveness by taking an export-weighted sum of the product inclusiveness measure. Finally, we find that a 1 percent increase in export inclusiveness, conditional on total export value and a measure of the country’s overall inclusiveness, leads to a 0.17 percent increase in GDP per capita growth.
The Exceptions that Prove the Rule? Revisiting the effectiveness of Capital Controls Under International Investment Agreements
This paper examines how international investment agreements constrain the use and effectiveness of capital controls in emerging and developing economies. Leveraging a novel database on the specific content of investment treaties, I identify those that include “macro-stability exceptions”, which allow countries to derogate from their legal obligations in times of crisis. Although theoretical models highlight the effectiveness of capital controls in moderating capital flows, empirical evidence remains inconclusive. I argue that this is partly due to the potential conflict between capital controls and countries’ treaty commitments, and to the limited attention given to endogeneity bias in existing studies. To address this identification challenge, I construct two indicators of policy space restriction and flexibility, reflecting the content of countries’ investment agreements in force, which I use as instruments for capital controls on outflows. Instrumental Variable (IV) estimates reveal that capital controls have a statistically significant causal effect on sudden stops. However, the direction of the effect differs across investment types. Moreover, countries with more restrictive treaty commitments are less likely to deploy capital controls, whereas those with greater policy space due to macro-stability exceptions use controls more extensively.
The exchange rate elasticity of the Swiss current account
This paper investigates the effects of Switzerland’s real effective exchange rate (REER) on its current account. Using dynamic empirical methods, we focus on exchange rate movements that are unrelated to real and monetary developments, i.e., those more likely to be driven by the Swiss franc’s safe-haven proprieties or unexpected exchange rate policy decisions. The paper’s key result is that the Swiss headline current account has been largely inelastic to the exchange rate at the business cycle frequency. Three factors explain this somewhat counterintuitive result. A) A negative but short-lived effect on the trade balance is partly offset by a positive effect on net investment income. B) Large and often volatile net exports of nonmonetary gold blur the aggregate reaction. C) Improved terms-of-trade largely offset the negative effect on the (real) goods trade balance, as import prices tend to fall by more than export prices. The limited sensitivity of the current account, however, does not mean that the Swiss economy is insensitive to the exchange rate. Our results confirm that consumer prices, as well as corporate profits in particularly exposed sectors, decline significantly following an appreciation. These results suggest that an appreciation of the Swiss franc likely doesn’t reduce Switzerland’s current account quickly but rather tightens monetary conditions, reduces GDP, and hampers prospects in the longer term.
International investment income: patterns, drivers, and heterogeneous sensitivities
Financial globalization has led to a large increase in international asset holdings. While the rise of associated dividend and interest flows has until now been muted by the decreasing trend in interest rates, this pattern could change, leading to a larger role of investment income flows in the balance of payments. We use a broad sample of countries to document the heterogeneous evolution of the various component of investment income flows, with a rising role of FDI and equity income, especially in advanced economies. We then assess the impact of various variables on yields with a panel analysis. Various drivers have highly heterogeneous effects across investment categories and country groups, often impacting the yields on both assets and liabilities. This translates into substantial heterogeneity in the response of countries’ income balance, due to different compositions of asset and liabilities. This heterogeneity is amplified if we consider country-specific estimates in complement to the panel ones. Focusing on the impact of changes in interest rates, we find that higher rates only had a limited impact in the 2013 taper tantrum, investment income balances are likely to benefit from higher US rates in the current phase of higher rates, with offsetting effects of higher domestic rates.
Greenwashing: From general Suspicion to the Offense
The uncertainty surrounding sustainability promises makes it clear that sustainability is not only based on facts, data and figures, but above all on trust. Even the suspicion of greenwashing can shake this. Increasing regulation is intended to provide a stabilizing framework and empower sustainable consumption and investment decisions. At the same time, it creates excessive legal risks by attaching legal consequences to undefined terms. The articles in this book range from Swiss and European law to corporate responsibility, the financial market and criminal prosecution.
US Customs Policy: an Impetus for international Trade Law?
The origins of today’s international trade law date back to 1930, when WTO member states committed themselves to maximum tariffs and compliance with the most-favored-nation principle. Permissible exceptions include free trade agreements, developing countries and anti-dumping, countervailing and safeguard duties. In recent years, new challenges have arisen, which are not taken into account in current law. The introduction of reciprocal tariffs by the USA threatens to overturn the previous consensus, which is why an urgently needed modernization of international customs rules is required.
Trump, Tariffs and Free Trade: what Future for international Trade?
Between the return of tariffs and geopolitical tensions, the dynamics of international trade are in a state of flux. Cédric Dupont (Professor of International Relations at the Geneva Graduate Institute) and Olarreaga Marcelo (Professor of International Economics at the University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management) analyze the virtues of free trade and the geopolitical consequences of a trade slowdown. They discuss what strategies are now necessary for Switzerland.
Multilateral Rules on Trade in Goods: Tariff Barriers
This chapter introduces the role of tariffs in the emergence of international economic law, and shows how the economic and political significance of tariffs has changed over time. It proceeds to the negotiation of the GATT 1947, the quasi-constitutional basis for multilateral rules on tariff barriers in trade in goods, and provides an overview over the profound impact of Art. I GATT 1947 (the Most-Favoured Nation Principle) on the structure of the global market today.
Switzerland has few Options against the Tariffs
The tariffs imposed by Trump are a violation of international law on economic growth. However, those who now react with counter-tariffs would be doing exactly the same thing and legitimizing the American breach of international trade law in the first place. What options are left?
Will environmental Treaties survive the Crisis of Multilateralism?
International law on environmental protection has numerous tools and texts, starting with those produced since the 1990s in the wake of the famous COPs. However, the effort expended by the various stakeholders to produce them requires adaptability to a changing context. The arrival in power of climate sceptic multilateralists, especially in the United States, represents a major threat to the future application of these provisions.
Future-proofing Environmental Treaties: Strategies for Adaptability
International environmental agreements (IEA) span various issues such as climate change, marine pollution, agriculture, migratory species, fisheries, transboundary watersheds, energy, waste management, and forest preservation. The static frameworks of some of these treaties, which fail to anticipate emerging challenges, highlight a critical need for more dynamic and forward-looking mechanisms in international environmental lawmaking.
Bolstering Environmental Governance With Trade Agreements: The Role and Challenges of Citizen Complaints
Incorporating environmental provisions into free trade agreements creates opportunities to address environmental protection failures. In particular, trade agreements can enable public participation in environmental governance. A key mechanism in that regard is the Submissions on Enforcement Matters (SEM) process created by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and replicated in several trade agreements concluded by the United States (US).
Global Value Chains
Chapter 11 in: The Concept Design of a 21st Century Preferential Trade Agreement
Increased production fragmentation and the resulting rise in intermediates trade have changed the composition and structure of international trade flows. Today, most of global trade is conducted along global value chains (GVCs). However, recent events, such as the financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have exposed the fragility of GVCs. This chapter discusses the role of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) to foster GVC resilience.
A Domestic Political Economy of Package Treaties
The post-World War II liberal international order coupled trade liberalization with a range of flanking measures, both outward-looking and inward-looking. This system, coupling domestic-level compensation with international-level flexibility, no longer functions as effectively as it once did. To consider how a renewed set of flanking policies might address, or even prevent, a backlash against trade liberalization, we explore why the earlier system (embedded liberalism plus temporarily tolerated relief) did not always function effectively.
Addressing the Negative Externalities of Trade: Flanking Policies and the Role of Package Treaties
This article examines the rationales for addressing sustainability and social inclusion in trade policy and the tradeoffs among imperfect institutional choices in doing so through ‘flanking policies’. It examines three types of negative spillovers or externalities implicated by trade: material, moral, and social/political.
Second Generation Flanking Policies: Addressing Extraterritorial and Non-Economic Costs of Trade Liberalization
Flanking policies – policies that aim to address potential negative effects of trade liberalization, and/or the concerns of domestic stakeholders regarding those negative effects, and that are either legally or factually linked to trade liberalization – have been a critical component of international trade policy since at least 1962. Over the years, however, flanking policies have changed. This Article argues that there is a heretofore unnoticed distinction between what I term first-generation flanking policies and second-generation flanking policies.
Operationalizing Package Treaties: A US Case Study
This article studies the incorporation of package treaties in domestic law and administrative practice, including the functions these treaties serve once in force. The typology for understanding how governments situate package treaties in their domestic regulatory spaces is introduced, arguing that the ‘package’ of legally binding trade liberalization commitments and mutually agreed flanking policies is shaped by both legislative and regulatory choices that are often underestimated and overlooked.
Identifying Spillovers of Trade Agreements through Impact Assessments: A New Database
In the past decades, a backlash against globalization has been brewing, especially in advanced economies. Despite this backlash being only partly determined by trade, we observe an increasing demand for transparency on procedures, methodologies, and results. To help us identify spillovers of trade liberalization, we construct a country and sector-specific database of impact assessments.
Addressing Negative Effects of Trade Liberalization: Unilateral and Mutually Agreed Flanking Policies
The conventional approach to trade liberalization has been to liberalize trade through international agreement and address subsequent domestic fallout and spillovers through domestic policies. In consequence, international obligations in trade liberalization are not legally connected with ‘flanking’ measures to address their negative effects. We discuss the shortcomings of this conventional approach with respect to labor adjustment and environmental protection.
Introduction to the Special Issue on Package Treaties
Globalization generates benefits for nations around the world, but it also creates winners and losers within nations. As former WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy puts it: ‘Globalization works because it is painful, and it is painful because it works’.1 This is why international economic integration inevitably creates a collective action problem; opposition by losers may thwart policies that would benefit nations overall.
Sweetening the Liberalisation Pill: Flanking Measures to Free Trade Agreements
Free trade agreement (FTA) negotiators increasingly face pressure from domestic interest groups, including environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs), civil activists and labor unions. As a result of the growing scrutiny on the content of FTAs, we are now witnessing a proliferation of instruments accompanying FTAs, which we group under the label of flanking measures.
CTEI experts discuss the future of trade policy in view of the recent re-election of Donald Trump
The re-election of Donald Trump has reignited debates about the future of global trade policy, bringing issues such as protectionism, the role of free trade agreements, and Switzerland’s economic positioning to the forefront. Two of our distinguished researchers at CTEI, Charlotte Sieber-Gasser and Cédric Dupont, recently explored these topics in separate interviews, sharing insights in their respective languages.
How to make EU unilateral trade and sustainability policies work for the global South?
This policy brief outlines the challenges of unilateral trade policies for the Global South based on ongoing research on EUDR and RED, and presents actionable policy recommendations, addressing a key question: where to focus efforts to mitigate the negative spillovers of unilateral trade measures and how?
Sustainability Standards which Work for All: How Trade Policy Can Protect Forests and Livelihoods
Deforestation-related emissions are a major contributor to climate change, exacerbated by international trade in agricultural products and timber. To combat forest loss, high-income countries are increasingly linking market access to sustainability standards. For instance, the EU deforestation regulation bans specific commodities from entering its market if they are not sustainably produced. However, such unilaterally imposed sustainability standards can cause unintended distributional effects, reinforcing existing inequalities.
A springboard or a safeguard? The repercussions of affinity on environmental treaties’ adaptability
If international environmental agreements (IEAs) are to remain relevant over time, the institutional capacity to adjust them to changing circumstances, referred to here as adaptability, is an important asset. Yet, while some IEAs include various adaptability features, others do not. This paper develops the concept of affinity, defined as the varying sense of connection between negotiating countries, and argues affinity is a major driver of adaptability variation.
Searching for a recipe for success: environmental citizen petitions under free trade agreements
Submissions on enforcement matters (SEMs) allow civil society members to assert that one party to a free trade agreement is failing to enforce its domestic environmental laws. Relying on qualitative comparative analysis and an original dataset compiling the 158 SEMs submitted under the framework of US FTAs, I investigate what conditions make submissions more likely to succeed in leading to a factual record.
Introduction to symposium supply chain trade in Africa: Retrospect and prospect
The symposium focuses on the evolution and determinants of Africa’s participation in Global Value Chains (GVC) through comparisons with other continents, but also across countries within Africa. Using firm, sector and country-level data they provide a comprehensive micro and macroeconomic analysis of GVC in Africa that helps inform policymakers aiming at increasing Africa’s participation in GVC.
Measuring misreporting at customs
Trade economists measure misreporting at the importer’s customs by comparing the export value reported at the exporter’s customs with the import value reported at the importer’s customs. The more significant the gap, the larger the extent of misreporting by the importer motivated by incentives to under-invoice to avoid customs taxes.
Rules of origin and exporters’ value-added
We explore the non-monotonic relationship between the restrictiveness of rules of origin (ROO) and beneficiaries’ value-added embedded in preferential exports. Using data for the European Union’s GSP schemes, we calculate the value-added maximizing level of ROO restrictiveness. Results suggest that current levels of restrictiveness in the European Union’s GSP schemes are not statistically different from optimal levels.
Child labour and global value chains
We explore the relationship between the internationalisation of production through Global Value Chains and child labour at the sector level, using data from 26 low- and middle-income countries. We find that sectors with stronger participation in foreign markets by exporting inputs to firms that will process them and export them to third countries (forward linkages) exhibit less child labour.
(New) EU Standards in Preferential Services Trade Liberalisation
While the European Union (EU) is exporting more services to non-EU countries (€1.072 trillion in 2019) than it imports, services appear to not particularly enjoy priority in EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs). This chapter assesses the scope of services trade liberalization in EU PTAs. Standardization can be found in new EU rules in a number of internet-related services, in delivery services, in temporary movement of natural persons, and in procedures for mutual recognition.
Addressing Negative Effects of Trade Liberalization: Unilateral and Mutually Agreed Flanking Policies
The conventional approach to trade liberalization has been to liberalize trade through international agreement and address subsequent domestic fallout and spillovers through domestic policies. In consequence, international obligations in trade liberalization are not legally connected with ‘flanking’ measures to address their negative effects. We discuss the shortcomings of this conventional approach with respect to labor adjustment and environmental protection: for political reasons, trade liberalization requires today the simultaneous regulation of labor and environmental spillovers.
Trade Packages 